It can be done then through the northern Belomorsk - Obozersky line that was completed in 1941 and links Murmansk with Moscow. The latter pretty much requires to take Leningrad at first to succeed, as merely cutting the Leningrad branch of the line is not enough to stop railway communication to Murmansk. So, the two most plausible ways for the Axis to get Murmansk are 1) like you said, the Soviets screwing up in some major way or 2) an attack from the south along the Murmansk railway. It may look like only 50-100 km on the map, but the roadless, stony tundra speckled with small lakes and ponds is a nighmare to cross for major units in any conditions - especially if someone is shooting at you from fortified positions, enjoying from functional lines of supply. Simply sending more men and hardware does not help, as that will only increase the supply problems in an almost exponential fashion. There are certain very strict limits on overland supply in these conditions, even in the summer. This is exactly the problem with capturing Murmansk - the terrain up north favours the defender quite heavily, as the Germans learned IOTL. If the USSR then loses, but the Wallies stay in the war to the bitter end and win, then Finland probably will remain untouched and keeps their gains. IMHO the loss of Leningrad and Murmansk in 1941 creates the preconditions for the defeat of the USSR in 1942-43.
In that case then the Germans will have the manpower to hold their positions in the North and Central Fronts and give a maximum effort to AG-South with all the reinforcements it needs, plus make advances in the Center on Moscow, doing what they wanted to IOTL but lacked the firepower and manpower to try, which was lop off Soviet armies here and there around Rzhev to straighten the line and bleed out Soviet Fronts bit by bit on the cheap. Plus the Finns will be very occupied helping deal with the mine situation in the Gulf of Finland and helping process the captured Soviet Baltic Fleet (or refloating scuttled ships to help get the scrap metal from them). I don't see the Finns being able to contribute any men, but for those that are locked down occupying Greater Finland, which is a big enough job itself, the Germans will just be happy to be able to remove men from that sector and not have to continue to sent weapons and materials to Finland, while getting Finnish raw materials like Nickel anyway. With Leningrad then a German supply base and it's airfields in German hands, plus nothing coming in from Murmansk, the Soviet ability to actually attack across the Volkhov to get to Leningrad will be nil. Plus due to the political history of Leningrad as the origin of the Revolution Stalin will need to launch huge, wasteful counterattacks to take it back from 1942 on to prop up morale. That doesn't mean that Moscow falls in 1941 per se, but the Soviet will be in a pretty bad situation for 1942 given that AG-North now can hold with a fraction of the troops, the Demyansk/Kholm stuff can't happen, Rzhev won't likely form, and Moscow is a lot closer to the front line, while the Soviets have a lot less people to use and the Germans a lot more. Finland is then along for the ride, but then their front shuts down in 1941 and the Germans largely leave, because they need those troops on other fronts. Judge Dredd™, STRONTIUM DOG™ Rebellion A/S, ©Rebellion A/S, All rights reserved.Click to expand.If Leningrad falls early in 1941, say August or September, then the Soviets are really screwed because the Finns then have little or no recourse to stop their own civilian ambitions for wanting greater Finland, while the Germans will put all the necessary pressure on the Finns to take Murmansk and capture the RR link to the rest of the USSR. 2000AD® 2000AD is a registered trade mark ® and © Rebellion A/S All rights reserved. K-9 image © BBC/Bob Baker/Dave Martin 1977. Cyberman image © BBC/Kit Pedler/Gerry Davis 1966.
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